Here’s who City & State readers predict will win next month’s state legislative elections

Last month, City & State asked readers to guess which candidates would win 22 state legislative races across the state. More than 90 people responded, including political consultants and even one of the candidates themselves. Some respondents submitted predictions for all 22 of the races, while others only guessed the results of one or two. 

One clear conclusion from the results of the poll: City & State readers favor incumbents. Across all 16 races involving an incumbent state legislator facing a challenger, the majority of readers predicted that the incumbent would win reelection.

In total, readers predicted that Democrats would win 14 races, while Republicans would win eight. Currently, these 22 seats are represented by 14 Democrats and eight Republicans, which means that if readers’ predictions are correct, the balance of power in next year’s session will remain exactly the same.

Some races were more divisive than others. Readers were most aligned on the outcome of the Senate District 42 race. A total of 78 people submitted guesses for that race, and 66 of them – just over 84% of the total – predicted that Democratic incumbent state Sen. James Skoufis would win reelection. Six people predicted that Republican Dorey Houle, who lost to Skoufis by just a handful of votes last cycle, would unseat him. Only three people guessed that Conservative Party candidate Tim Mitts would win the race – and one of them was Mitts himself.

More than 80% of respondents also predicted reelection victories for Democratic state Sens. Monica Martinez and Lea Webb and Democratic Assembly Members Stacey Pheffer Amato and Ron Kim. In addition, 84% of respondents guessed that Democratic Assembly Member Pat Fahy will win the race for a state Senate seat in Albany.

But some races were much more divisive. A total of 78 people submitted predictions for Assembly District 46 – the southern Brooklyn district where Republican Assembly Member Alec Brook-Krasny is fending off a challenge from Chris McCreight, former chief of staff to Democratic New York City Council Member Justin Brannan. Of those, 40 people – about 51% of the total – predicted victory for Brook-Krasny, while 38 people – about 49% – predicted victory for McCreight. The race for Senate District 39 in the Hudson Valley also divided readers, with 58% predicting that Republican incumbent state Sen. Rob Rolison will win reelection and 42% predicting that Democratic challenger Yvette Valdés Smith will unseat him.

Stay tuned to City & State for coverage of the state legislative races to watch, and check back after the election to see if any readers correctly predicted all of the winners!