Winners and Losers 11/07/14

Republicans dominated their congressional matchups, flipping three House seats in New York and seizing power in the U.S. Senate. On the state level, they won an outright majority in the Senate, while Democrats gained ground in the Assembly. And of course, the three major statewide offices are still held by Democrats. For a closer look at who won and who lost, here's a special post-election extended edition of our weekly Winners & Losers. 

WINNERS

Andrew Cuomo – A win is a win, as Gov. Andrew Cuomo said before Election Day, and despite a historically low vote total the governor is #winning and now has another four years as the state’s top elected official. He may have burned some bridges along the way, but his gimmicky Women’s Equality Party secured a spot on the ballot while his Working Families Party frenemies took a hit. Plus, although he pledged to help Democrats take the state Senate, Cuomo can look forward to continuing his productive working relationship with the Senate GOP—an outcome he may have wanted all along.

Dick Dadey – The state’s good government groups went head to head on the constitutional amendment to “reform” redistricting rules in New York, and Citizens Union was openly supportive of the measure, which won resoundingly at the polls. Dadey was quick to point out that the ballot proposition—which changes the process but still gives lawmakers substantial control over drawing legislative districts—was a success even without much help from the governor.

Howie Hawkins – By their own standards, Howie Hawkins and the Green Party won big on Tuesday, garnering a whopping 5 percent of the gubernatorial vote (thanks to nearly three times as many votes as four years ago). And that was enough to elbow the Working Families Party off its row on the ballot for the next election. “I think it’s safe to say we’re the third party in New York politics,” Hawkins said. In a state with numerous influential third parties, that’s saying something.

Don Levy – When the Siena Research Institute began releasing polls over a month ago showing state Senate Democrats trailing badly in key battleground races, party officials scoffed. When the pollster found Rep. Michael Grimm way ahead of Domenic Recchia, and Lee Zeldin beating Rep. Tim Bishop, and John Katko up by double digits over Rep. Dan Maffei, critics raised doubts about voter turnout models and tried to undercut Siena by dredging up examples of where it got it wrong. On Election Day, however, Siena and polling director Don Levy were 15 for 15 in picking the winners.

Tom Libous, John Sampson, Michael Grimm and William Scarborough – Libous, Sampson, Grimm and Scarborough might sound like the name of a law firm, but these men are lawmakers—and, allegedly, they are on the wrong side of the law. But this week the legal clouds hanging over the men didn’t keep any of them from getting reelected, Libous and Sampson in the state Senate, Scarborough in the Assembly and Grimm in Congress. Any of them could still be forced out by convictions, but voters seemed to agree that the legislators are innocent until proven guilty.

Eric Schneiderman – Wasn’t the state’s attorney general supposed to be the most vulnerable of the three Democrats running for reelection to statewide office? Yet John Cahill’s spirited challenge fizzled, as Schneiderman capitalized on the state’s Democratic enrollment advantage and a huge campaign war chest. Plus, the fact that he was a reliable progressive helped him avoid attacks from the left—in contrast to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who was supposed to coast to victory but had a final vote total was less than Schneiderman’s. Honorable mention goes to Schneiderman’s buddy, Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, who won 60 percent of the vote, albeit against a lackluster foe who couldn’t even get public financing.

Sheldon Silver – The conventional wisdom is that Tuesday was a doozy for the Democrats. But Shelly Silver isn’t most Democrats. Although the Party incurred losses around the nation, New York’s Democrat-controlled Assembly is due to swell from 98 to 106 Democratic seats come January. And while a Republican Senate is a bummer for most Dems, the power shift ironically means Assembly Speaker Silver can indisputably claim to be the most powerful Democrat in the state Legislature, since Republicans no longer need Jeff Klein’s IDC.

Dean Skelos – Republican Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos is enjoying one of the more decisive victories in New York’s elections. Not only did his party fend off an attempted Democratic takeover in the upper chamber, but the new, clear-cut Republican majority means there’s no need—on paper at least—for Skelos to continue his coalition with the Independent Democratic Conference in the next session. And the GOP did it in style too, with a number of the winning candidates coasting to easy victories.

Elise Stefanik – The newly minted congresswoman from New York’s 21st district has accomplished quite a bit already. She worked as director of debate preparation in Paul Ryan’s 2012 campaign. She helped write that year’s Republican Party platform. She was considered such smart, dynamic candidate that House Speaker John Boehner personally flew in and campaigned for her. And, now, at age 30, Stefanik has become the youngest woman in history elected to Congress. As if the Republican majority didn’t already have enough momentum.

Jim Tedisco – Who says a Republican in the Assembly can’t accomplish anything? All three ballot propositions in New York were approved by voters, but the most popular one was a Tedisco-backed measure to allow legislative bills to be published electronically. While there might be a paper company somewhere in the Albany area that loses business, the clear winner was Assemblyman Tedisco, who has made going paperless a personal cause. 

LOSERS

Bill Bratton – Nobody came away looking great after the turmoil over who would fill the No. 2 spot at the NYPD, but Commissioner Bratton may have had the most tumultuous time of it. Chief of Department Philip Banks unexpectedly declined a promotion to first deputy commissioner and resigned after Bratton refused to expand the role. That, in turn, drew criticism from black politicians who saw Banks as a champion of reforming the force and improving relations with minorities. By the time he appointed Benjamin Tucker—another NYPD veteran who like Banks is black—it had gotten to the point where Bratton was insisting that he would be keeping his own job.

Dan Cantor – It’s one thing to get screwed on Election Day, but getting screwed by your own candidate brings the humiliation to a whole new level. The alliance forged between Cuomo and the Working Families Party this campaign season was an unhappy marriage from the start, but the governor’s blatant efforts to persuade voters to back him on his shiny new Women’s Equality Party line at the expense of the WFP contributed to a slide down the ballot and left the impression of a third party gasping for its life. Dan Cantor and Cuomo didn’t share much affection before, but now we can only imagine what the relationship will look like going forward.

The de Blasios – New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio may not be the reason Democrats failed to take control of the state Senate, but he certainly wasn’t able to follow through on a pledge that they would knock out the GOP. And while having at least two more years of divided government in Albany might not be such a bad thing for Cuomo, a Republican-controlled state Senate will be a hurdle for the mayor on any number of policy fronts, from the minimum wage to charter schools. And New York City's First Lady was roughed up in the press too, with the Post reporting that Chirlane McCray was furious at NYPD Commissioner Bill Bratton over the resignation of Philip Banks.

Michael Gianaris – Everything was supposed to be going the way of the state Senate Dems this year: their leadership had stabilized, their campaign debt was erased and a powerful coalition had come together to support their candidates. Whatever ultimately caused them to stumble—insufficient backing from Cuomo, a backlash against de Blasio, a nationwide GOP tidal wave—the buck stops with Gianaris, who ran the Dems’ campaign operation. Things could look better in the next cycle, but that’s a long two years from now.

Mark Grisanti – The state senator from Western New York always had an improbable career. His district is heavily Democratic, and the Democrat-turned-Republican barely squeaked out a victory when he first ran in 2010. But once he supported the SAFE Act in 2013, his legislative career was apparently doomed. In a year when Republicans reclaimed the state Senate, Grisanti’s was the only Republican swing district to fall back into the Democratic ledger.

Steve Israel – As head of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the congressman from Long Island had a tough task: saving as many Democratic congressional seats as he could in a year when Republicans were poised to win big. Unfortunately, he wasn’t up to the job, losing at 14 seats altogether and three seats in New York State. Israel couldn’t even find a way to unseat Staten Island’s Michael Grimm, who is facing multiple counts in a federal indictment. On Thursday, Israel announced that he would step down as chairman of the DCCC, and he could get bumped from the leadership entirely.

Dan Maffei and Sean Eldridge– No one likes to be thrown out of office, but it’s even worse to lose by as wide a margin as Maffei did on Tuesday. Maffei’s hold on the seat has always been tenuous, but when federal prosecutor John Katko challenged him for the 24^th Congressional District, not even he could have expected that he would lose by a margin of 60 percent to 40 percent. Meanwhile, down in the Hudson Valley, Sean Eldridge was under the impression that after buying a house in the 19^th congressional district, living there intermittently for a few years, and spreading some money around, he just might be able to get a seat in the House of Representatives. On Tuesday, Eldridge found out that doesn’t really work, and he found out the hard way, earning just 35 percent of the vote against incumbent Chris Gibson.

Domenic Recchia – Who could possibly lose a congressional race against a rival with a 20-count federal indictment, no national support, little in the way of campaign funds—and who threatened to throw a reporter off a balcony? Look no further than Domenic Recchia, the bumbling disaster that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC spent a combined $3.6 million on in an effort to win what appeared to be a shoe-in congressional seat. To be fair, some analysts have said that as a Brooklynite, Recchia never really had a chance in a district dominated by Staten Island. But the guy’s horrible communication skills sealed the deal: While a September poll showed him down 4 percentage points, that number had plummeted to 19 points by October’s end.

Louise Slaughter – Ever since she first ran for office in 1986, the Rochester-based congresswoman has coasted to reelection, usually by wide margins. But this year, after being challenged by Gates Town Supervisor Mark Assini, she finds herself in a fight for her life. Slaughter is currently leading in the vote count, but by a nail-bitingly narrow margin, and she has nothing to do but wait while officials count the absentee ballots.

Scott Stringer – True or not, the New York City comptroller had to deal with an unflattering report in the Post that he was using his taxpayer-funded NYPD security detail to drive his wife to work. If the claim against the comptroller gains traction, it could be the first scandal for Stringer, who had been successfully positioning himself as a conscientious counterweight to the new mayor. The report—which Stringer’s office flatly denied—also noted that the comptroller always ride along to avoid breaking city rules. But it doesn’t help things that another reputable comptroller in New York, Alan Hevesi, was brought down by having state employees drive his wife around.

Correction: An earlier version of this post incorrectly said that Elise Stefanik was the youngest person to serve in Congress. In fact, she is the youngest woman elected to Congress.