Opinion: What explains Cuomo’s polling momentum?

With less than 60 days until Primary Day, and less than 50 days to Early Voting, one thing is clear: Andrew Cuomo is not only leading the Democratic primary for mayor, something I predicted in early February, but he’s also gaining momentum.

Our latest poll shows Cuomo winning 45% of the vote outright. That’s a 4-point gain since March and a 10-point gain since January. When you take away the 14% of voters who are undecided, Cuomo gets 53% – enough that ranked-choice voting doesn’t even matter. 

So what’s behind Cuomo’s resurgence, especially after years of negative headlines?

Filling the Democratic leadership void

The Democratic Party faces a leadership vacuum, much of its own making. Despite President Donald Trump’s obvious vulnerabilities, Democrats have appeared unsteady since his defeat. Cuomo is stepping into this void and is perceived by Democratic voters as a seasoned, stable leader with a track record of policy achievements. Many are craving someone who can not only lead but deliver – and our ranked-choice voting simulation concludes that 2 in 3 voters say Cuomo fits the bill.

Turning negatives into positives

Labeled by his critics as a “bully” and a “micromanager,” Cuomo’s style is now a source of strength. In contrast to the ceremonial pomp and circumstance approach of Mayor Eric Adams, voters want a hands-on leader focused on governing the city – and one tough enough to go head to head with Trump. In uncertain times, Cuomo’s no-nonsense reputation and focus on results is resonating. Democrats are looking for someone who can make the trains run on time - and Cuomo is their guy.

Opponents are boosting Cuomo

Cuomo’s opponents have badly miscalculated how to play the COVID-19 issue against him. For some Democrats, hearing “Cuomo” and “COVID” evoke memories of steady leadership during crisis. Rather than tarnishing him, attacks only reinforce his role as a crisis manager – a profile that aligns with how 75% of voters currently see the city: in a state of crisis.

Building a winning coalition

Cuomo has been attacked as an out-of-town, upstate carpetbagger, barely steeped in the workings of the five boroughs. But many observers believe that Cuomo cut his political teeth during his father Mario’s unsuccessful 1977 mayoral run, and particularly in the subsequent postmortem analysis of the race. Noted political strategist Bruce Gyory long ago credited the Cuomo 1982 campaign, which Andrew Cuomo managed, with formulating the “Iron Triangle” of Democratic primary politics – a coalition of nonwhite voters and immigrants (especially Black women) in places like Central Brooklyn, Richmond Hills and Southeast Queens; educated white progressives in areas like the Upper East Side and Brooklyn Heights; and outer-borough white ethnics in places like Riverdale and Brighton Beach. While others scramble to master ranked-choice voting, Cuomo appears to be methodically locking in support across this winning trilogy.

Attacks aren’t likely to stick

A recurring question we are getting again and again is: What happens when Cuomo’s opponents go negative with paid media? Likely not much. First, this is the most expensive media market in the country – cutting through the noise is hard. Second, Cuomo’s negatives are well known and already factored into voter perceptions. Even in January, when his unfavorable rating hit 49% (and has since come down), he was still winning voters who didn’t like him personally but saw him as the best candidate for mayor. Finally, we’ve already seen this play out to some extent with anti-Cuomo Super PACs having spent well over $100,000 attacking him – and yet, Cuomo’s numbers keep going up, not down.

The race for third

The overall dynamics haven’t changed much since January, when we first forecasted a Cuomo win. He maintains a strong and, in my view, insurmountable lead. With Zohran Mamdani’s support on the rise, the real contest may be for third place.