Opinion: The elephant in the room

The new president is trying to upend the world order and the federal government at lightning speed. Tariff threats against our allies? Check. Dismantling long-standing agencies like USAID? Check. Instilling fear in Canadians and Greenlanders (and Gazans) of America’s new manifest destiny? Check.

But there’s a big city just over 200 miles north of Washington, D.C. that could eventually become the Queens native’s focus. And if President Donald Trump wants to “save” a chaotic New York City, he’s going to need a pliant and cooperative mayor for the next four years.

The New York City mayor has a large bully pulpit and could be a big thorn in the side of a hard-charging president. But what if Trump had a partner in the city willing to do his bidding – shipping out thousands of undocumented immigrants, rallying support against congestion pricing and leading an ascendant MAGA movement in what has traditionally been one of the bluest bastions in America?

Mayor Eric Adams was a Republican in the latter half of the 1990s, finding a brief political home in the city’s Giuliani-era GOP after leaving the Democratic party over what he felt were weak policies that had allowed crime to flourish in the city.

But like the new president, who was a long-time pro-choice Democrat, Adams is a crafty political shape-shifter and a very thick-skinned survivor. He’s been through a lot in his public life, from his storied career as a renegade cop through his stormy tenure as a Brooklyn state senator running the gaming committee (“Show Me the Money!”) and then his eight years as the charismatic and ambitious Brooklyn borough president.

Right now, both the polls and the money-raising outlook look bleak for Adams in a crowded Democratic primary (which is likely to get even more crowded once expected front-runner Andrew Cuomo jumps in by mid-March). The New York City Campaign Finance Board froze the mayor’s matching funds, and a lot of his former financial backers are holding back their donations because of his legal travails, and the latest polls have the mayor in third or fourth place.

But imagine this scenario: President Donald Trump decides he’d prefer a subservient new law-and-order Republican (Adams) to a potentially pugnacious and energized Mayor Andrew Cuomo and pushes Adams to run for reelection Republican.

I’ve heard from the mayor’s inner circle that in recent days, Adams has discussed the possibility of running as a Republican candidate for mayor. That would allow him to escape the scrum of eight Democratic candidates bashing each other (and him as the main target) till the end of June. In this scenario, he’ll have a one-on-one battle against Cuomo (likely), or some other more progressive candidate who emerges from a bruising primary.

Trump and Cuomo, both Queens natives, have a long history dating back to the president’s days as a swashbuckling New York developer, as well as similar combative, “take no prisoners” styles of operating.

Just five years ago, President Trump and then-Gov. Cuomo occasionally crossed swords over COVID-19 lockdowns and other crisis policies. In fact, Cuomo’s televised daily pandemic briefings became so popular that for a period of time, he even overshadowed Trump – no easy feat and not a scenario the new president relishes happening again.

If Adams wants to run in what’s likely to be a lightly-contested Republican primary, he has two potential options. The easiest would be to officially switch his party registration within the next eight days. If he doesn’t meet that Feb. 14 deadline and decides to switch later, he would need to get a Wilson-Pakula dispensation to run in the Republican primary, which would require support from a majority of members of the five GOP county executive committees.

Right now, this scenario seems remote, and neither the chairs of the GOP county committees nor GOP State Chairman Ed Cox seem inclined to embrace the embattled mayor. But if Trump decides he wants Eric Adams to be the Republican mayoral nominee in 2025, the domineering president will undoubtedly make everyone fall in line.

That would make the next 10 months very interesting. It might even accrue to New York City’s benefit.

I recently watched the fascinating feature film “The Apprentice,” which tells the tale of Trump’s rise as a real estate scion from the outer boroughs to the flamboyant mega-developer who conquered Fifth Avenue (Trump Tower) and reality television (NBC’s “The Apprentice”), becoming daily tabloid fodder in the news capital of the world.

Even though the president has been living in exile in Florida for the past four years, I predict that Trump fantasizes about eventually returning to New York as a conquering hero after his final term ends.

What better way to do that than to use his considerable powers of the purse to help the mayor of New York get the city back on track?

Want thousands of new police officers? Here’s $250 million in federal subsidies to beef up the NYPD. Need help rebuilding and revitalizing Penn Station and the surrounding area? Here’s $500 million in unused infrastructure funds for the next Hudson Yards-style mega-neighborhood.

And to top it off, here’s another $2 billion in federal largesse to rebuild a robust mental health infrastructure with 20,000 much-needed psychiatric beds to tame the mentally ill homeless street/subway/Rikers crises. (OK, that last one might be a stretch.)

President Trump could have his administration members join well-timed and well-covered press conferences with the mayor over the next nine months, announcing these news initiatives to bring back “the golden age of New York.” Or, if you prefer, “Make New York Great Again.” (MNYGA?)

To be sure, it would be tough for Adams to actually win a mayoral general election as Trump’s hand-picked Republican nominee. The president isn’t exactly popular in New York City, where roughly 70% of voters backed Vice President Kamala Harris in November. Rev. Al Sharpton, a close political ally of the mayor, has warned that Adams’ base of working-class Black voters will abandon him if he goes MAGA. A general election match-up between Adams and Cuomo would probably be Cuomo’s to lose.

But when you’re embattled and under attack, a one-on-one match can seem more winnable than a one-vs-eight scramble, even if you’re the incumbent.

The next few weeks will be key. If the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York dismisses all charges against Adams – as Trump, who has said that Adams “was treated very unfairly,” is reportedly pressuring them to – then look for other dominoes to fall in the evolution of Adams and his tenuous and tenacious attempt to win reelection.

After a dozen years of Democrat mayors, following 20 years of Republican mayors, is it possible the pendulum will swing back this November?