Opinion: Who’s winning the battle for the left?

In political campaigning, as in life, the best communicators are those who keep their message simple and consistent. Nuance and eclecticism are albatrosses for political candidates.

In the just-heating up June Democratic mayoral primary, there are three separate races: the bid to be the “outsider” candidate (Whitney Tilson); the tilt to the moderate lane (which currently includes Mayor Eric Adams, former Comptroller Scott Stringer and former Assembly Member Michael Blake, but which could soon be joined by the 800-pound political gorilla in the room, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo); and the sprint to win the progressive vote (Comptroller Brad Lander’s path to victory, with state Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos just behind him, representing a new generation of pragmatic ultra-progressive mayoral aspirants).

But the surprise story of the race so far has been the breakout success of Queens Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani. The first South Asian man and native Ugandan (and the second Muslim) to serve in the Assembly, Mamdani has become an alluring choice for the growing constituency of young democratic socialists multiplying in neighborhoods like Astoria, Park Slope, Sunnyside, Bushwick and other potentially voter-rich pockets of the city.

When City & State broke the news last summer that Mamdani was planning a mayoral run, he was hardly taken seriously. But he has since sprinted out of the gate and captured the left’s imagination with a number of simple ideas that he’s clearly articulated: freezing rent increases for rent-regulated housing (that won over lots of tenant votes for former Mayor Bill de Blasio); free bus fares throughout the city (which will attract the attention of fixed-income seniors who may not identify as left-wing but certainly would appreciate a free ride daily); free universal child care (not a unique stance – Ramos and others, including the 5Boro Institute think tank which I cofounded, have been beating the drums on this issue for a few years) and Scandivanian-style “baby baskets” full of free baby products for young families. 

And finally, Mamdani’s latest out-of-the-box idea to save citizens money on groceries: city-subsidized food markets in each borough to bring down the skyrocketing price of eggs and other staples for the lower middle class and those suffering from poverty.

These are classic red meat issues for left-wing voters who identify as socialist. Echoes of the “Rent is too Damn High” (Jimmy McMilllan’s mayoral rallying cry in 2005 and 2009) is always a crowd pleaser to the one million tenants in rent-regulated housing. Cheaper food and free transportation are also crowd pleasers – arguably food inflation played a huge role in the outcome of the recent presidential election.

Can Mamdani emerge as the darling of the left and pose a serious threat to the moderate lane winner (Stringer or perhaps Cuomo) or a poll-challenged, indicted incumbent whose tough on crime message in 2021 propelled him to victory over left-wing candidates like Maya Wiley and “Guaranteed Income to All” celebrity candidate Andrew Yang?

Insiders and pollsters will argue that the far-left wing is at best one-third of Democratic primary voters and thus candidates like Mamdani have to broaden their base considerably to win.

True, but not all rent-regulated tenants identify as democratic socialists, and the grandmas that take the M104 bus down Broadway on the Upper West Side might give a second look at the young fellow who will save them money each time they travel to a museum or visit their grandkids downtown.

And how much will the ongoing war in Gaza be a factor in a city with a large Jewish population – but also a growing Muslim, South Asian and young activist cohort that might get behind the guy who started a Students for Justice in Palestine chapter as a college student at Bowdoin almost a decade ago, well before the latest round of Israeli–Palestinian brutalities? Could his long-held advocacy for Palestinians rouse young liberal voters, who are generally not a high-voting constituency in local elections?

It’s only the second inning in a mayoral primary that will intensify over the next few months and reach the bottom of the ninth inning in late June. Then, voters will have to decide whether they’ve had enough of a brash mayor whose scandal-scarred cronies in the NYPD and in his inner circle have blown up around him in the past year. Maybe they will want a steady hand on the wheel like veteran pol Stringer or phoenix-like Cuomo, steadying a city that has arguably veered off course since that fateful period exactly five years ago when COVID-19 decimated New York.

But as we’ve seen globally (goodbye Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, hello President-elect Donald Trump), voters are restless and want dramatic change. Business as usual does not win the day in these turbulent times. Millennials and Gen Z don’t seem like incrementalists to me.

For them, and for a city that might be looking to really shake things up, could a radical, left-wing unknown emerge from the pack this year?

Remember the candidate with the unique name: Zohran. He may not win, but based on his early performance, he’s going to be a factor in this year’s unpredictable mayoral scrum.