Opinion: The political chess match in NYC

While the eyes of the nation – indeed, the whole world – are riveted for the next 30 days on the spectacle of our quadrennial presidential race, here in New York City there is an intricate political chess game going on behind the scenes.

Will Mayor Eric Adams be indicted yet again? Will he be forced to resign? Will Gov. Kathy Hochul use her power in an unprecedented way and remove him from office?

Who is the next domino to fall in an administration where commissioners and now deputy mayors are fleeing faster than scared residents in a burning building?

Will Public Advocate Jumaane Williams become the “accidental mayor” for 90 days? Could he use that time to knit together a winning coalition to ward off all the left-wing progressives like Comptroller Brad Lander and state Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos from challenging him?

Does former Comptroller Scott Stringer have an opening to claim the moderate lane in a special election? Does Williams really even want to be mayor for the next five to nine years, a job that once led former Mayor Ed Koch to lament: “When a bird dies in Queens, they blame me”?

Will former Gov. Andrew Cuomo run for mayor? If so, would state Attorney General Letitia James jump in to thwart the former governor she took down with a blistering report? Will Hochul remove the mayor before Election Day (to help Long Island congressional Democratic candidates), lest she incur the wrath again of the steely doyenne of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi?

If Hochul does remove the mayor, she’ll face the political Sophie’s choice of assuring her next governing partner will be either Williams or Cuomo, her two least favorite nemeses.

And if James runs for mayor and wins, does that mean that Cuomo runs for his old job – state attorney general – to torture his two antagonists, Hochul and James?

Welcome to the New York Mayoral Chess Tournament. Everyone seeking office is trying to think three moves ahead, and the pawns and knights at City Hall are getting swept off the board at an alarming pace. Is the King at Gracie Mansion so exposed that he will be checkmated by Damian Williams, the roving knight running the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York?

A new poll shows that 69% of New Yorkers want the mayor to resign. But those might not be the poll numbers Adams is most focused on for the next month; he may put all his energies into figuring out how to survive to see how Nov. 5 turns out. If Trump wins (deep sigh), there will likely be a new U.S. attorney running the Southern District early next year, one who may decide to let the “Turkish Follies” case fall by the wayside. 

Ironically, the mayor’s predecessor, Bill de Blasio, was saved by Trump’s election while in legal hot water back in 2017. As insiders may recall, former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara had the unpopular first-term mayor in his crosshairs for some fundraising shenanigans – right up until Trump decided to reprise his “Apprentice” role and told Bharara: “You’re fired!” Bharara’s successor, Acting U.S. Attorney Joon Kim (who five years later would co-lead the investigation that sunk Cuomo) decided not to pursue any charges against the beleaguered mayor, and de Blasio cruised to reelection later that year.

It’s unlikely history repeats itself here: even if Trump wins (there’s that feeling of dread washing over me again), a new U.S. attorney is appointed, all charges against Adams are dropped and the mayor survives until next June – it’s still very hard to imagine a path to reelection for Adams.

In this elaborate political chess match, who will be the next mayor and when might that happen? Keep your eyes on the board and watch the Gracie Mansion King do whatever it takes to avoid checkmate.

But expect the rooks, bishops and other mayoral aspirants to circle the board, waiting for the right moment to pounce.