Andrew Cuomo, political divining rod

Politico’s Jimmy Vielkind has a good story today about Gov. Andrew Cuomo meeting with Senate Democrats to discuss strategy for winning control of the state Senate. In the piece he notes that it shouldn’t be news that a Democratic governor is helping Democrats, but considering the history it is worth noting the meeting.

I thought it was also worth highlighting what state Democratic Party Executive Director Basil Smikle told us on the Slant podcast last week.

“It’s funny, because a lot of people say the governor doesn’t want Democrats to win the state Senate, but every time I’ve talked about reclaiming the Senate, anytime anybody else has talked about it, he hasn’t called and said ‘stop talking about that,’” Smikle said. “It doesn’t happen. We are firmly engaged in trying to retake the Senate.”

At this point, I think it’s probably best if we just take Cuomo at his word that he wants Democrats to control the Senate, because there is a much more salient question we should be asking: How much political capital is Cuomo willing to sacrifice to help Senate Democrats?

Let’s say for argument’s sake that Cuomo goes all in: He transfers millions of his campaign funds over to Senate candidates and hits the stump in all the hotly contested races. Basically the ideal scenario for Senate Democrats. And then, Republicans hold onto control of the state Senate. Republicans will undoubtedly be angry with Cuomo, much like they were with Mayor Bill de Blasio when he tried to oust them two years ago. What motivation does the GOP have to do anything to support the governor’s agenda for the next two years? None. We end up with a Legislature that mirrors the current situation in Washington, D.C. (Pretty sure no one really likes that.) Then what happens in two years? Cuomo is up for re-election. Do Democrats reward him for sacrificing two years of productive governing in an attempt to get a more progressive Legislature? In my experience, voters’ memories are pretty short-term. They generally care about what you have done lately. And that would leave Cuomo vulnerable to both primary and general election challenges.

Let’s play out the flip side to that scenario: Cuomo does minimal campaigning and gives Senate Democrats some money from his coffers, basically walking a middle line that doesn’t destroy his relationship with Republicans. If Democrats win control of the Senate, does the new Democratic conference punish Cuomo for not doing enough? If they are smart they don’t. Because they need to get things done to establish a foothold and prove to voters that they were right in giving them control. Plus, ideologically, they probably agree with Cuomo and the Assembly on a lot of the things they want to do, so really they will just end up fighting over who gets credit for bills that pass.

For Cuomo, the risk is much lower for him to not go all in for Senate Democrats. Any cautious, pragmatic politician, which Cuomo has shown himself to be, would pick the path with the least risk, unless confident they were going to win and reap the rewards of the riskier path. So, as you watch the campaign season play out, if you see Cuomo on the stump for Senate Democrats or transferring large sums of money into their coffers, I think that would be a good indication that there is internal polling showing that Democrats are going to take control of the Senate. If you don’t see him doing these things, then the battle is probably more of a toss-up, as many expect it will be.