Could New York City be in for a #Stexit?

Staten Islanders are proud New Yorkers, but historically many of us have viewed the rest of the city with a cautious fraternalism in the same way that Great Britain looks at its continental neighbors. Consider the way Britons refer to the continent as “Europe,” and we call other parts of the city, “the City.” Along those lines, many Staten Islanders saw some interesting parallels between the lead up to the Brexit vote and our own past debates and referendum on seceding from the city of New York.

Much of the modern Brexit debate focused on clear policy differences between U.K. voters and the governing majority in Brussels on trade, immigration, jobs, and the regulatory burden. Obviously, the issues motivating Staten Islanders are not the same, as we are dealing with municipal powers and not national powers. Yet there is an underlying similarity between the Brexit rationale and that of the “Stexit” (because no movement in 2016 can exist without a hashtag-friendly name) – that we are being subjugated by legislators and bureaucrats from “foreign” places (in our case, the other four boroughs) who do not share our policy goals, broad concerns and collective political consciousness.

In the 1992 election, a full two-thirds of Staten Islanders voted to secede from New York City. They did so knowing full well that Staten Island would face a 15 percent budget shortfall, which could only be made up through a combination of tax increases and service cuts. In the end, the overwhelming majority said they’d be willing to spend perhaps 8 to 10 percent more to separate. This is consistent with the unceasing emigration of Staten Islanders to higher-priced jurisdictions in New Jersey, with fewer social services, year after year.

Much like Staten Islanders in ’92, Britons were unsure what the net cost of the Brexit would be to their wallets, but the majority preferred self-governance. And if you leave out the parts of the U.K. that do not even want to be a part of the U.K itself, like Northern Ireland and Scotland, the majority vote was as overwhelming as it was on Staten Island. Those that voted for the Brexit were frustrated with Brussels’ detachment, its nanny-state lawmaking and the feeling of oft being on the losing side of votes. Much like Staten Island, Britain tended to send delegations a bit more center-right than the majority of the European Parliament.

We can see some historical parallels as well. When Britain joined the precursor to the E.U. in the early ’70s, the logic seemed clear to most people: the rising tide would raise all ships. Initially, 67 percent of U.K. voters chose to join in with the continent. For New Yorkers in the 1890s, the prevailing belief was that the two major cities of New York and Brooklyn, as well as their suburban neighbors, would do better if they were united in a Greater New York. Staten Islanders voted 5-to-1 to consolidate with the expectation that a collective agreement for waterfront industrial development would spawn the county’s economic growth and the island would be connected to its neighbors in a new “city of bridges” and united rail lines – neither of which happened.

During the 20th century, the power of the mayor expanded through charter revisions and the overall growth of municipal bureaucracy. All the while the role of the borough presidents – who had initially retained some executive authority over local matters – diminished. Finally in the 1990 revision, all semblance of local control was eliminated when the Board of Estimate was dissolved and its powers given to a legislative body based on population – the City Council. With just roughly 7 percent of the city’s population, Staten Island effectively lost any charter-mandated self-governing power, and faced significant challenges in affecting citywide policy. Britons who favored leaving the E.U. feared a similar pattern, which began to be substantiated as Brussels Eurocrats expanded their role to regulate everything from the wattage of light bulbs in Bristol to the price of a pint in Portsmouth, and even what one may legally call a turnip in Cornwall (seriously).

Today, the separation Staten Islanders feel from their four partner boroughs is more overarching, and perhaps stems from the borough’s goal of maintaining its suburban character. It is the only part of the city where property taxes really matter politically, as it is the only borough where the vast majority of people own their own homes. It is also the only place in the city where people rely on their cars for transportation, rather than the other four boroughs, which have extensive mass transit access. As a result, the issues that matter to Staten Islanders are rarely on the priority list of any elected officials outside of the borough.

On controversial issues, Staten Island often finds itself at odds with the rest of the city. Recent Quinnipiac polling highlights this divide. Over three-quarters of Staten Island overwhelmingly support the NYPD and proactive policing, while the aggregate is more than 20 percent less in the rest of the city. Other issues polled, like income inequality, the minimum wage and even foreign policy, indicate a clear ideological divide. When asked which political leader, Gov. Andrew Cuomo or Mayor Bill de Blasio, best represents their views, Staten Island was the only borough to have a majority of respondents say neither.

Anecdotally, there are several progressive legislative proposals that are popular elsewhere in the city that have been met with near-unanimous “Bronx cheers” on the Island: the bail fund; decriminalization; the bag tax; speed cameras; affordable housing; and the horse-carriage ban.

The only thing that should be taken as certain is that when people feel a genuine disconnect from their government, many are willing to take the plunge into relative uncertainty in exchange for self-determination. In the long run, Britain will continue to be one of the world’s leading economies. It will still be a member of the G7 and G20; it will still wield one the most capable militaries in Europe. Likewise, while the cost-benefits of a Stexit could be debated, there is no doubt we would survive. The city of Staten Island would be the 35th most populous in America, and statistically the safest. We’d be bigger than Edinburgh, Liverpool and Manchester.

While there is no serious movement to revive secession at this point, it shouldn’t be dismissed as impossible.

Joe Borelli is a New York City Councilman representing the 51st District on Staten Island.