Poll: de Blasio's re-election chances in hot water?
One of the most difficult prognostications to make when it comes to elections is how candidates dogged by ilicit activities are viewed by the voting public.
It's easy to forget a time in 2013 when Anthony Weiner, fresh off of a scandal-plagued exit from the House of Representatives involving sexually explicit text messages, was an early favorite in the Democratic field of mayoral candidates. I remember talking to voters in Tottenville, Staten Island as part of City & State's "Five-Borough Ballot" series who were more than willing to forgive Weiner's indiscretions, which they viewed as a private matter - no pun intended - than they were for John Liu, the former New York City comptroller, whose use of straw donors and highly publicized investigations into his campaign fundraising helped prevent him from gaining traction with voters.
That distinction between personal infidelities and backroom corruption matters in the context of Mayor Bill de Blasio's re-election bid. While de Blasio's first two years in office were defined by successes such as universal pre-K, paid sick leave and establishing a municipal identification program for undocumented immigrants, he also had plenty of missteps. His shaky relations with the police force in the wake of the death of Eric Garner was a low point of his first term, and he struggled to shake the perception that he cared more about his standing nationally and internationally, having made numerous trips outside of New York City.
Now the mayor has to contend with state and federal investigations into whether he and his aides evaded contribution limits as part of an unsuccessful effort to flip the state Senate to Democratic control in 2014, as well as separate probes into a botched land-use deal and corruption at the police department. Along with these allegations comes the obvious speculation that the mayor's activities may damage his re-election chances - with no shortage of potential challengers waiting in the wings, from city Comptroller Scott Stringer to U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries to Public Advocate Letitia James.
The question for de Blasio is whether these investigations are too inside baseball to connect with voters. None of them involve anything as salacious and headline-worthy as marital infidelity, and there is not enough evidence at this point to know how much the mayor himself was personally involved in any of the allegedly illegal activities. But whereas Weiner was viewed favorably before his sexting habits became public, de Blasio's approval ratings have fluctuated since he entered office, though he remains popular among key voting demographics.
In our poll below, we attempt to cut through the hysteria surrounding the investigations and gauge whether our readers believe these investigations will be ultimately damaging for the mayor in 2017. Tell us what you think in the poll below: