What is the path to victory for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in New York?
As the presidential race centers squarely upon New York state, the seminal question becomes, can Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton rebound in their home state?
Just over half of Republican voters statewide live upstate, 30 percent come from the four downstate suburban counties (Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland), while 17 percent are from New York City. But, in terms of actual GOP primary turnout, the upstate vote swells to over a 60 percent share and the downstate vote shrinks, especially from New York City.
For Democrats, the primary turnout closely tracks registration. In low-turnout, statewide primaries 50 to 52 percent of Democrats are from New York City, 31 to 32 percent from upstate and 16 to 18 percent from the suburbs, whereas in high-turnout primaries the regional splits are consistently 55 percent from the city, 30 percent upstate and 15 percent from the suburbs.
The perceived measure of success in New York for Trump will be whether he wins enough delegates to repave his path toward winning the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination, whereas for Clinton, given her large delegate lead over Bernie Sanders, it will be about the popular vote spread.
The sheer number of primary voters will draw Trump to focus on upstate, especially Western New York, which has historically gravitated toward tough-talking businessmen, such as Carl Paladino in the 2010 gubernatorial race. Under Republican rules, the statewide winner gets 14 delegates at large if they pass the 50 percent threshold, and if a candidate gets 50 percent or more of the vote in a congressional district they capture all three delegates. Can Trump run the table across upstate’s 10 congressional districts? Or will Ted Cruz and John Kasich pick off delegates outside of Western New York?
On the Democratic side, upstate is chock-full of university towns surrounded by Rust Belt communities, seemingly made-to-order for Sanders. Nevertheless, Hillary Clinton has a long track record of nurturing strong support from upstate Democrats. If Clinton can carry upstate even narrowly, she is poised to carry the primary by double digits. Sanders must sweep upstate to have any chance of making this a close contest statewide.
Just shy of 80 percent of suburban Republicans live on Long Island. Trump seems to have not only name recognition there, but issue solidarity with primary voters on the economy and immigration. The question becomes, will Kasich be able to prevent Trump from making a clean sweep of the 15 delegates from the five suburban congressional districts?
On the Democratic side, female voters cast just under a 60 percent share of the suburban vote. These Democratic women tend to be well-educated, professional, issue-oriented and most are over 40. If Hillary Clinton holds these voters as she has in previous states and adds her traditional landslide among minority voters, a key demographic in both Nassau and Westchester primaries, she will comfortably carry the suburbs.
In New York City, minorities make up just shy of 60 percent of Democratic primary voters, while outer borough Jewish and white Catholic voters now cast fewer than a third of Democratic primary votes in the city. If a Democratic candidate can carry New York City’s minority, Jewish and white Catholic voters in a primary, they are unbeatable. That coalition has been and should remain Clinton’s model.
New York City will, however, have a bigger impact on the GOP contest. If Trump exploits his hometown advantage, crossing 50 percent in most of the 12 congressional districts from New York City, his statewide delegate total will swell. Alternatively, if Kasich, and perhaps even Cruz, snags a bushel basket full of these 36 delegates from the city, that will shave Trump’s delegate edge statewide.
When you boil it down, measuring the success or failure of the frontrunners hinges upon upstate for Clinton (if she succeeds there, her downstate advantages will carry the day among the state’s 247 delegates), and the five boroughs for Trump (New York City will determine if he carries 75-plus of the 95 delegates up for grabs).
There is a certain justice in that scale of success, which is almost impossible to poll accurately, leaving the outcome firmly in the hands of the voters.
Bruce Gyory is a political and strategic consultant at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips LLP and an adjunct professor of political science at SUNY Albany.