Who Will Unify an Evolving Uptown?

New York’s 13th Congressional District, which encompasses most of upper Manhattan and portions of the Bronx, is beginning to exemplify an emerging predicament for modern-day candidates, political consultants, voters, constituents and elected officials alike.

Depending on whom you ask, U.S. Rep Charles Rangel is viewed as either a veritable institution with a strong legacy of accomplishments or the epitome of transactional backroom politics. Like his predecessor, Adam Clayton Powell Jr., Rangel crystallized the identity of Harlem as a national political and cultural power base for African-Americans for decades. Narrow re-election victories in his past two races over state Sen. Adriano Espaillat have kept his legacy alive. Since Rangel will not run for re-election, several candidates will join Espaillat in vying for the open seat in the June Democratic primary, which, by virtue of likely token Republican opposition, will determine the general election winner.

The current composition of the now-majority Latino 13th District has become a symbol of the complications precipitated by constantly evolving demographic shifts in urban neighborhoods. As a result, we are beginning to see changes in the approach of black and Latino candidates and legislators from knee-jerk opposition to gentrification to a more inclusive approach to its actualization. As the realization of changing demographics becomes ever more evident to voters, messaging on local economic development, homeownership and how longtime residents can benefit from embracing inclusiveness will eventually eclipse decades of protectionist rhetoric.

Any political consultant worth their salt will tell you winning elections in such a diverse district is largely about identifying and turning out specific voting blocs that affiliate with the ethnicity of their candidates. But opportunities for a different approach are beginning to emerge. As district populations become more fluid and diversified, candidates with messages of unification that attempt to resonate across wide swaths of potential voters will become inevitable, as will a similar approach to representation once they are elected.

Frontrunners in the 13th District race like Espaillat and Harlem Assemblyman Keith Wright have seen their pathways made more difficult by recent entrants into the race, such as Washington Heights Assemblyman Guillermo Linares, who will siphon off votes from Espaillat’s Dominican base, and Harlem state Sen. Bill Perkins, who shares a base with Wright.

There are currently four black candidates running (Wright, Perkins, former Clinton and Obama administration ambassador Suzan Johnson Cook and former Democratic National Committee political director Clyde Williams), two Dominican-American candidates (Espaillat and Linares) and Adam Clayton Powell IV, the former East Harlem assemblyman – and son of Rangel’s predecessor – whose Puerto Rican heritage may prove an advantage in differentiating him from the field.

There is one white candidate, Mike Gallagher, who lives in Hudson Heights, a vote-heavy enclave of Washington Heights, which owes its higher proportion of white residents less to gentrification and more to many residents and their descendants who have remained amid decades of demographic shifts.

There will be several opportunities for electoral transcendence. A candidate like Cook, the only woman in the race, could make a successful run by speaking to women’s issues that cut across ethnicities. Espaillat will look to evolve into a candidate who is identified more by a message of unity, reform and pragmatic change and less by the call to Dominican loyalty that defined his previous campaigns. Wright will attempt to convert support from Rangel into votes by reaching out to Latinos and whites the congressman remains popular with.

The Spanish-speaking Powell will look to unite a Manhattan and Bronx coalition of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and older black voters who still hold a strong affinity for his father. Perkins and Linares can cast themselves as independent unifiers in a time of change.

Since the winner of this race likely will arise from the Democratic primary, fundraising and spending are not necessarily the main keys to victory. Money helps raise a candidate’s name recognition, define their issues and turn out voters. But few voting blocs will be up for grabs. Many residents already know who they will vote for. The aspirants will need to strike a balance between turning out their bases and leaving their comfort zones to convince small pockets of undecided voters they are not used to communicating with to support them. Creative, disciplined messaging and effective delivery are critical to success.

Further, it will be difficult for candidates to differentiate themselves on specifics. Most will have similar platforms on voter concerns like housing, health care and gun control, and most have solid governmental experience as state legislators or federal officials. Therefore, this will become a personality-driven race, a factor that always benefited gifted retail politicians like Rangel. Public appearances, debates and street campaigning will go far toward determining the victor.

The winner of the 13th District race will be decided in some part by how effectively candidates can turn out voters they most identify with, but in large part by what they convey to a greater universe of voters across a broad demographic spectrum.

 Michael Oliva is a political and media strategist. Follow him on Twitter @olivamichael.