We are now in the ‘Between Times’

You could say that the “Between Times” are beginning now that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic appears to be over. Some areas of New York could begin to reopen in two weeks. People are getting antsy. The political storm clouds are gathering in more ways than one.

A rare joint appearance on Thursday by Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio showed that the political rivals were still looking to work together to tackle problems like homelessness and public transit that are normally politically difficult to resolve. “Governor, thank you. I think this is a partnership. You’re right, it’s not going to be easy,” de Blasio, on joint efforts with Cuomo to improve public transit.

A cameo by his predecessor – former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is leading the state’s effort to trace the virus’s spread – underscored how political unity is helping mitigate the pandemic, but the window of opportunity might not last for long.

With the presidential race looming and a June 23 state primary not far off, it’s fair to assume that it will only become more difficult after mid-May to decide some big political issues with what remains of the relative bipartisanship that arose during the pandemic. In other words, the next two weeks could define what the new normal becomes in New York.

Some areas of upstate will begin easing social distancing restrictions on May 15, and New York City would likely follow weeks later. With public health and an economic recovery on the line, decisions made by Cuomo and other political leaders in the next two weeks will have an outsize impact on everything from businesses to social etiquette in the years to come.

Issues like education, health care and job training have been mentioned by the governor when he has addressed the larger questions presented by the pandemic and the upcoming reopening. “We have to learn and grow from the experience,” he told reporters during his daily press briefing on Tuesday. “We have to build back, better than before, as a society and as a community.” This call for unity, however, will be tested by how the governor’s message is received by the public, local officials and a range of special interests.

Businesses of all types want leeway with reopening. Some people want to use the streets as makeshift parks. Stories of others turning to driving have included some interesting twists.Restaurants and gun stores are eyeing zoning changes to use outdoor space as a socially distanced storefront. On a larger scale, the futures of political forces like Big Tech, the hotel industry and real estate are in doubt. Even our wardrobes could change.

Given the scope of a crisis on par with the Great Depression, more than a few elected leaders and activists have sensed that there is a fleeting chance to enact transformational changes of one type or another. Some people want to make the Green New Deal really have a global impact. Others are focusing on rejuvenating small businesses, including oil companies in some cases.

While Democrats could enact many of their priorities at the state level, Cuomo is in a unique situation to get some support from political independents and the quarter of New Yorkers who remain registered Republicans. His approval rating is at a record 71% and that means the governor has some political capital to use, however quickly it might depreciate among Republicans who currently trust Cuomo more than President Donald Trump.

There is not much time to consider how new data from the pandemic can factor into recovery decisions that are now being decided by the governor and his various task forces and regional czars. Sweeping state budget cuts to education, local aid and health care could come down in the next few weeks, and it is hard to believe that the governor would retain his high levels of support among Republicans, independents and Democrats after that.

A substantial X-factor in reopening downstate is how well the governor will work in conjunction with de Blasio, who has named his own task forces and leaders. Media reports have shown throughout the crisis how the intermittent dysfunction between the two leaders has undermined them both – though Cuomo has arguably got the best of it.

Then there is Trump. The governor has continued to avoid attacking the president in recent weeks as he tries to keep Trump from welching on his support for billions in new federal aid for the state. The governor has had something to show for his efforts by saying nice things about the president, but that can include ironic twists. As of publication time, Trump was leveraging state aid to get concessions on “sanctuary” policies for undocumented immigrants.

Trump moved his focus toward his reelection campaign on Wednesday with a dubious declaration of victory over the coronavirus. “We did all the right moves,” Trump told reporters. “The federal government rose to the challenge, and this is a great success story.” The slow slide out of social distancing restrictions has begun nationwide as electoral politics begin to get louder.

“I’ve heard this music before,” Cuomo told reporters Wednesday. “This is the music of campaign season.” While he was specifically referring to the political divisiveness caused by opposition of some congressional Republicans to a bipartisan effort to get billions in federal aid for states. It’s clear the governor is sensing something very real about the importance of the upcoming weeks.

With the president now declaring victory against the coronavirus, his appetite for helping New York could also diminish in ways more concrete than writing a few critical tweets. With infections mostly decreasing across the state, there is a case to be made that many businesses will be allowed to reopen in the next few weeks. No one can say just how “normal” things will be after that. Social distancing will still be a thing. Drive-ins could make a real comeback.Plexiglass, masks and hand sanitizer could start to feel normal. There will be fierce debates over how to balance public health with personal liberties.

Yet, for the time being, most people are still stuck at home. Whether they are Democrats, political independents or Republicans, they are all looking for a way out of quarantine. “The crisis brings out the best and the worst,” Cuomo said on Wednesday while whipping up ire against U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. And the political winds are only going to get stronger in the critical weeks ahead.