The race for president: With the primaries unsettled, will New York play a starring role?

The day after U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders coasted to victory in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary, dozens of his grassroots supporters gathered in a Brooklyn pub to plot their next steps. Many had knocked on doors or made calls in the Granite State to persuade voters to back Sanders, and they were exhilarated by his 22-point win over Hillary Clinton. Some had already scheduled trips to help get out the vote in South Carolina, an upcoming state on the Democratic calendar. And several predicted that the contest would remain competitive through mid-April, when New York holds its presidential primaries.

“Am I hoping Hillary Clinton is upset by then? Yes. Realistically? Probably not,” said Ben Serby, a young South Slope resident who has been actively campaigning for Sanders since last summer. “But I think our momentum will certainly carry through then.”

Sanders’ momentum from the first two states – nearly tying Clinton in Iowa and trouncing her in New Hampshire – has left the Democratic race so unsettled that the nomination could still be up for grabs in nine weeks when New York voters cast their primary ballots. In what would be an even more unusual turn of events, the ongoing free-for-all in the Republican field, with party officials trying in vain to rally around a single establishment candidate to overcome businessman Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, could actually give New Yorkers a say in selecting both parties’ nominees for president.

“We planned on it from the start to make the New York Republican Party and New York Republicans, on a grassroots basis, decisive in the nomination of the next president of the United States,” said Ed Cox, the chairman of the state Republican Party. “We did that by positioning our primary on April 19, and we’re the only Republican primary on April 19. The positioning is based on … the number of good candidates that we had on the stage way back when this decision was being made.”

So far, all is going according to plan for Cox. The New Hampshire results prompted two Republicans, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, to drop out, but Trump, Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson all survived to compete in South Carolina, the next state up for Republicans.

Cox noted that a number of the primaries between now and April 19 distribute delegates proportionally, which will make it hard for any candidate to secure the nomination outright. March 15 does feature a number of winner-take-all states, including Florida and Ohio. But after that it’s five weeks until New York, with only Utah, Arizona and Wisconsin in between.

“We always expected there would be more (candidates) than four years ago,” Cox said of the GOP field. “Maybe three candidates, maybe a vice-presidential candidate posing as a presidential candidate, that they will, in that five-week period, we’re the gateway to that remaining 40 percent of the delegates who are left unchosen. That could be decisive.”

Such an outcome would be a departure from the norm, in part because New York’s date on the primary calendar has typically been so late that voters have already anointed the frontrunners. One exception was in 2008, when the race between Clinton and then-U.S. Sen. Barack Obama was still going strong by the time the state’s voters cast their ballots. This time around, Clinton is expected to rebound in Nevada and South Carolina, but Sanders could continue to surprise. Even if Clinton surges ahead, her Democratic rival has displayed an impressive fundraising ability that could keep him in the race for weeks.

“My sense is that both the Republican race and the Democratic race will have some significant activity going through March, perhaps even into April and the New York primary,” said Jay Jacobs, the chairman of the Nassau County Democrats. “I can’t say whether they’ll definitely be very competitive. I believe on the Democratic side, it’s likely that by mid-April Hillary will have a commanding lead in overall delegates. Nonetheless, I think the Bernie supporters are so energized and so motivated that they’ll keep the New York primary active.”

If either party’s nomination is still up for grabs when New Yorkers vote on April 19, however, the long-term impact might be less on who ultimately becomes president and more on a local political matter: control of the state Senate.

For months, political observers have predicted that state Senate Democrats would perform strongly this fall, possibly even winning enough seats to retake the majority. In a presidential election year, greater turnout typically paves the way for Democratic gains. In addition, Clinton served as a U.S. senator in the state, and as a presidential frontrunner she could draw strong support – and potentially boost turnout.

But some changes came sooner than expected, most notably the ouster of former Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos after a corruption conviction. The vacancy left the Republican conference with just 31 seats, one shy of an outright majority. State Sen. Simcha Felder, a New York City Democrat, caucuses with the Republicans, giving them a tenuous majority, and state Sen. Jeff Klein’s five-member Independent Democratic Conference could revive a power-sharing partnership that kept the GOP in control in the past. But if a Democrat fills Skelos’ Nassau County seat, there’s no guarantee Felder or Klein would side with the Republicans.

The special election, scheduled for the same day as New York’s presidential primary, could be critical. Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky, a Democrat who has touted his record as a prosecutor, is set to take on Christopher McGrath, a little-known Republican lawyer. Some observers have suggested that if Clinton and Sanders are still battling out on April 19, higher turnout among Democrats could tip the race in Kaminsky’s favor.

“If you’re the Democrat trying to win Dean Skelos’ old seat, you’re rooting for this primary season to go heavily and all out into New York, because this is a Democratic state and you’ll see a maximum turnout of Democrats,” said Lawrence Levy, the executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies. “There are no scenarios at present that aren’t political science fiction that would have Bernie Sanders winning a New York primary against Hillary Clinton. So the bigger story is the impact down-ballot.”

Of course, it’s also possible that the Democrats will have essentially made their presidential pick while the fight for the Republican nomination rages on into April, and that could spur increased GOP turnout and instead give McGrath a timely boost.

“There is no question in my mind that if, come April 19, there is an active Republican race for the presidential nomination, and the Democrats are over, that that will give an advantage to the Republican candidate in that special election,” said Steve Greenberg of the Siena Research Institute, which will be polling the race in the coming weeks. “Likewise, if the Republican race is all but over but there’s still a hot contest going on between Sanders and Clinton, I think that would give an edge to the Democratic candidate in that race. If neither party has active primaries still going on by then, I think it’s sort of a draw. That said, that’s just one factor among many that will play into that special election.”

No matter what happens, New York has already played at least a supporting role. In Iowa and New Hampshire, three of the four winners have strong ties to New York. Clinton was New York’s junior U.S. senator. Sanders’ accent still gives him away as a Brooklyn native. Trump, the real estate executive, reality TV star and entrepreneur from Queens, underperformed in Iowa but came away with a convincing win in New Hampshire. And the early results have only stoked former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s interest in a potential independent presidential bid.

But Serby, the Sanders campaign volunteer, said he was unsure how much local ties might translate into actual votes for candidates like Sanders and Clinton.

“I look forward to voting in New York in the primary,” he said. “I feel like my neighborhood is gaga for Bernie. I don’t really see any signs for Hillary ever. But it’s New York – people don’t really put up signs that much anyway, because we’re not used to being courted by these candidates because we’re so late in the primary process.”

And for many New Yorkers, having a local cast of characters playing on the national stage is far less important than the issues raised by the candidates, whether it’s the size of the federal government or income inequality.

“Bernie hasn’t lived in Brooklyn in years,” said Helen Wintrob, a psychologist at the gathering of Sanders supporters in the borough. “Hillary Clinton is from Chicago, and she only came to Chappaqua when she wanted to run for Senate. And Trump comes from Queens, but …”